Magical Thinking and Aduhelm

Check this out. What you will see, unless I am missing something, is a statement of the obvious. To me not surprising is the fact that Biogen reported Aduhelm sales of a mere $300,000 for 3rd quarter 2021. Somewhat more surprising was that this was up against analysts’ consensus of $14 Million.

Yup, sometimes things turn out just like you think they will. On launch, this drug was panned for being FDA approved despite lack of clearing what were deemed to be appropriate clinical trial efficacy hurdles. Its $56,000 annual price tag per patient doesn’t help sales, nor does the collective impact that this price would have on the Medicare budget if the product’s coverage is approved.

Bottom Line. Despite all of the above, predictions are still being heard that in 2022, the drug will get traction, with a $9 Billion peak sales figure being bandied about. At the same time, talk is also being heard of the possibility of Biogen abandoning the drug. 

The moral of the story? Forecasting based on magical thinking is always a little dicey!

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